iPod Touch Rumors – Balancing the View
Our pal Andy Abramson is all atwitter about rumors of a new iPod Touch. He’s excited about what it means for his client Truphone and Skype. Here’s what he said:
Rumored New Apple iPod Touch Will Be Huge for VoIP, Multimedia
Yesterday on KenRadio, host Ken Rutkowski and I jabbered on about the rumored new Apple iPod touch, that will come with a camera and a microphone-built in and 64 GB of memory.This is awesome news for the likes of Skype and client Truphone and will likely start a flood of “me too” applications from the likes of Cablevision who operates a WiFi hot zone in the New York area, Clearwire and Comcast who are chasing customers in the Portland area with WiMax and elsewhere as the WiFi capability of the iPod touch means its a mobile phone without the mobile phone bill and contract connected to it, something Jeff Belk, the former Senior VP of Strategy at Qualcomm discussed in Unstrung in February of this year.
[Read Andy's Post]
Andy makes some great points. Andy and I also often come from very different perspectives. I think one of the values we bring is that we do sometimes see things from alternate views. I think Andy’s ideas are right on the mark for the view today. But the device isn’t out today. I think there’s a longer view to consider.
Because we’re both personal friends and industry colleagues, I can say unequivocally, I think Andy needs kids. He believes the iPod will become a hot item for pre-teens for Truphone and Skype. I think it’s an absolute zero. It’s a non-starter that I think will get zero traction. Sheryl and I know something about teens and pre-teens that Andy hasn’t experienced personally. They don’t use Skype. They don’t use Truphone. They don’t want or need it. They don’t talk on the phone. They use SMS for text messaging. They live on SMS. We know many teens who want nothing but the very simplest of mobile phones and unlimited text. They don’t care about iPhones or smartphones. They live in SMS. Thousands of messages a month.
This addiction to texting is global and it’s the single most common form of communications. They don’t use Skype. They don’t want to. They are simply not interested until they go away to school, usually college. Skype and Truphone, while both interesting iPod apps, as they exist today, are neither useful or interesting for that age group.
The other demographic Andy sees as a hot spot is travelers who don’t need to be “always on” but want to stay in touch cost effectively. I agree that people want that. People want to be connected. The iPod will absolutely be of interest, but there’s a problem. I think it’s a significant problem.
Nobody wants to carry a second device and these people already carry mobile phones of some kind. Think about the point and shoot digital camera. Do you have one? How often do you remember to take it along. The mobile phone has become the camera of choice.
If there’s going to be a reason to take the new iPod along, it will be for those people who use phones that don’t include a camera. It’s the single biggest drawback on the current iPod Touch in my view. But when is the last time you saw a mobile phone that didn’t have a camera built in. Mobile phones have become the de facto digital camera that is always with us. We take them everywhere.
People buy iPods for that second device. They’re an adjunct, but not a primary tool. And while I agree people will buy them, I’ll wager they won’t actually use them the way Andy sees for the long run. They’ll hate carrying multiple devices and they’ll almost immediately forget the iPod at home. They’ll forget to charge it and pull it out of a bag with a dead battery.
The problem with these secondary devices is that they are secondary. That means they either get left at home on the charger, forgotten, or they stay in our bag and when we reach for them, they haven’t been charged. Even when we make a conscious decision to take ours along, we still forget them most of the time because they’re one more thing to remember.
I agree with Andy, but I think the window of opportunity for the value points he describes is limited.
There’s one thing Andy said that I simply don’t get at all. He said “This and a MiFi would be awesome too, as my friend Phil Baker pointed out in an email.” So Andy, help me understand, because I just went and looked. $99 for MiFi ($59 with rebate) is a nice price, and yes it lets me connect multiple devices. But I have to buy a service contract. With Verizon, that’s 250MB for $39.99/month or 5GB for $59.99/month on a new 2-year contract? I just don’t understand how his is remotely more effective than an iPhone. Help me see the light please? And, didn’t we just add yet one more device to carry? Another widget to remember to charge and pick up when we leave the house?
And then there’s the iPhone. Prices are dropping. The iPhone is the object of desire. Today I can get an iPhone cheaper than the current iPod. Why pay more for an iPod? Where’s the value? I know there’s the issue of mobile contracts, but I don’t think that’s nearly as big an issue as we make of it. Minimalized contracts and heavy WiFi usage of the iPhone simply make it a far more powerful and attractive device in my view.
The iPod Touch is a fun device. It’s great for some things. It’s the perfect computer for the family room while watching TV and for casual computing. But the iPhone is the iPod killer and beyond the initial frenzy (because anything new from Apple creates a short-term frenzy), I think the iPod simply no longer represents a growth market. I think the numbers will be disappointing and I don’t see a long life ahead for any generation iPod. I think it’s an end-of-lifecycle product before it even comes out the door.
on July 22nd, 2009 at 12:55 pm
I agree with you mate,on several counts.
Puting emphasis on some medium like skype or anything of that nature is just simply not worth it. I personaly didn’t even know what skype was untill a friend of mine used the special effects on it to make our noses look uncharataristically large. Its just not something we use. Like you said, more of us simple folk are just happy with a regular phone and unlimited texting.
on July 22nd, 2009 at 10:23 pm
If new iPod touch brings the built-in micro phone option so it can used as VoIP phone, iPod touch has Wifi capability which enable him to use VoIP apps like Truphone, Skype, Vopium or Jajah.
on July 22nd, 2009 at 10:48 pm
Hi Ken. Thank you for the thought provoking post and please allow me to take another perspective: Replacing one contract for the iPhone with another for the MiFi certainly not going to solve anything, but I’m sure that Andy spoke from the perspective of someone who uses the the wireless broadband router for more than but one device.
But why not one step further and replace the MiFi with a dongle router. That would allow us to use the iPod (and other devices) worldwide without being bound to horrendous data roaming charges. Granted, unlocking the iPhone achieves the same goal more elegantly if carrying less devices is high up in priority list.
Another approach (and maybe the most reasonable scenario) would be tethering the iPhone to another mobile device using WiFi or Bluetooth. I am on an unlimited data contract here in Japan which costs me $60 a month. I could shell out another $60 for an iPhone or just add the iPod to my WM MID and get the best of both worlds.
Saying that the iPod doesn’t represent a growth market is only true if seen in relation to the iPhone. Sure, the latter has more growth potential, but there are a lot of people who will NEVER buy an iPhone and thus would be completely lost for Apple as customers if it wasn’t for the iPod.
Quitting the iPod would also mean a loss in strategic perspective for Apple. Suppose the next gen iPod is a means to put pressure on the carriers? Apple might use it as a door-opener against AT&T’s (and other carrier’s) backward policies when it comes to internet telephony. What Cupertino basically says is: Look out, this may not be perfect yet, but we may have the means to make you nothing but data pipes one day here. The iPod may very well have the capability to connect to WiMAX networks one day which usually have less restrictive data usage policies.
I am aware that I represent a different end of the user spectrum, the one that does not mind carrying a second and third device as long as these devices provide value. Maybe some of the points above are of general validity and I’d definitely like to discuss this further if you think it’d make for an interesting talk.
on July 23rd, 2009 at 7:20 am
Mike – Thank you for taking the time to bring such thoughtful points to the conversation. Certainly my perspective is very US-centric and doesn’t work around the world. Your usage in Japan makes a great fit that I didn’t really take into account. I too easily forget that the services and pricing options we get here in the US don’t mirror most of the world. I hate when I overlook that. You and I might be at the polar opposites of the user spectrum, but we still both represent a large customer audience, and the carriers do need to support us all.
Your point about the iPod on WiMAX or LTE is a great one too. Those networks will change the way we use our mobile devices yet again potentially. I have a different view there as well. In the use, I question whether we’re really going to see a WiMAX/LTE rollout of 4G that delivers in a time frame that doesn’t get wiped out by some other 5G offering. I see the industry as a whole struggling to even deploy on a widespread basis. I wonder if it will ever get beyond small pockets. Given that Sheryl and I are moving this weekend to an area that doesn’t have 3G only adds to my concern.
And in my post, I overlooked the microphone as a part of the iPod that really does have huge impact. For us, while it doesn’t open the door to phone replacement, it does add huge value to the iPod as the casual computer around the house. Skype will make it a nice little Skype phone.
It’s a great device, and I was a bit harsh in thinking yesterday as I don’t think Andy’s two target demographics are where it will succeed. I do think with the right evolution, it will win, but I think the concept of treating it as a casual computer hold far greater potential than any kind of mobile phone replacement.
Thanks again. I love all the different ways of looking at this stuff we all share.
on July 26th, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Nice discussion. After Nimbuzz and Truphone, there are news that Vopium is bringing its ipod application in market. This will certainly bring new competition in Voip providers.
on July 30th, 2009 at 5:21 am
You forget about the fact that here in US, you can only use iPhone on AT&T. There are millions who are on Verizon and other plans. For them, the iPod Touch will still be a good alternative, at least until AT&T’s exclusive contract is broken (and what on earth was Apple thinking when they locked themselves into this contract???).
on August 3rd, 2009 at 1:04 pm
iPod touch – a VoIP device to rule them all…
There are some speculation going on regarding a new iPod Touch having a built in microphone and some more memory (i.e. 64 GB).
Ken Camp have written an excellent piece does not believe that the VoIP on iPod Touch will become a VoIP hit with pre-teen…